收藏家 J‘s Collection

翻出很久以前记得笔记，很有意思。

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我相信我自己
我相信自己出售的商品

总也懒得更新blog，却喜欢只字片语的写Buzz和围脖。毕竟不是每个人都有这么好的文笔和这么多的文采。定位不一样，结果也不一样。

当初开这个blog，看名字就能看出来，是想记下不时想到的创意，又有半年没更新了，应该不是没碰到好的创意，而是没时间停下来好好思考。最近能写东西的地方太多了，围脖，推特，博客，反而懒得写了。

应该算毕业了，顺着原来的思路试图找券商基金的工作，找到CIC自营的实习。还没确定之时，阴差阳错做了咨询，还因此得到了一个董事长助理的offer。还在思考，到底是顺着原来的路径，先给自己扎实的基础和可撬动的名头，还是用报废的心态做暴富的准备一步高起点，继续思考。

好久都没时间写了，既然分数出来了，还是写两句吧。

Pass了，因为两个大头科目FSA和Equity都过了70%（个人认为的通过的主要因素）。还有QM和FI也是70%，有个Alternative竟然不及格，其他都是中间。比预计的好得多得多了。毕竟通过率还是挺高的，达到41%. 看来RP积攒还是很有用的。考完马上到cfaspace上就这前人的回忆写出了大部分的回议题。虽然看大家的讨论发现自己好像错了很多，着实郁闷了一阵，不过，毕竟最后还是pass了。感概良多。

由于学习比较紧张，前面基本没时间看书。直到最后大家在做DCP咨询项目的时候，我才空出来整整3周的时间，全力看书，写笔记，这次又写了100页A4纸，大多数是正反面吧。后来给了Sabrina童鞋，也算个RP积累吧。感谢S童鞋一直的鼓励和支持。

听着Google音乐里面, 自己找的所有Queen的全集，今天正好听到Life is real 这首歌，很振奋，很激动，歌词也写得很好，分享一下（mp3很容易搜，google吧）：

Guilt stains on my pillow
Blood on my terraces
Torsos in my closet
Shadows from my past
Life is real
Life is real
Life is real, so real
Sleeping is my leisure
Waking up in a minefield
Dream is just a pleasure dome
Love is a roulette wheel
Life is real
Life is real
Life is real, oh yeah
Success is my breathing space
I brought it on myself
I will price it
I will cash it
I can take it or leave it
Loneliness is my hiding place
Breastfeeding myself
What more can I say
I have swallowed the bitter pill
I can taste it, I can taste it
Life is real
Life is real
Life is real
Music will be my mistress
Loving like a whore
Lennon is a genius
Living in every pore
Life is real
Life is real
Life is real, so real
Life is cruel
Life is a bitch
Life is real, so real
Life is real
Life is real
Yeah, life is real

还有2个多月就毕业了，一年，不对，两年转眼即逝。中间也基本没停过，经历过低谷，也发现且抓住了很多扑面而来的机会；低谷中，因为有目标，有指引，都顺利的通过了，机会来临时，毫不犹豫，抓了就跑；也曾迷茫，也曾失落，更多的还是不断努力向前。

一周内，将决定下一个方向，目前能做的只是等待，和剩下的一个Pray（另一个已经实现，L2 passed）。

强烈建议，没考CFA的同学，就别报名了。不是人考的。NND

不管怎样，结束了，剩下就看人品了。能不能上贼船，等结果吧。剩下的事还要努力。

又做到Practice Exam 2了，跟一级一样，题目越来越变态。有点做不下去了。

2级还真是麻烦。

最后一周还有别的一大堆事干，只好在复习中间抽空做了。

前两天总算把Notes都看完了， 不过跟去年一样，看完了不代表理解了。做题还是一样迷糊。还是努力边做边总结吧。如有朋友再等看笔记，sorry了，实在没时间同步到blog上来了，还是像去年一样，一大堆A4纸的生活。

2级考case套题了，还好，上下午各只有10个case共60题（120题 in total）时间压力应该会小一些。收费的Mock还没有放出，先把Practice 的2本6套吃掉吧。

闭关状态，把能外包的事情都外包，跟人说的是每天两点睡觉，上三趟大大（这个是为了填补3这个空），吃四顿饭，睡5个小时（其实应该不止，下午累了睡半小时，evenning困了，再睡半小时，再看到1，2点）。

最后两周，加油吧。

Intercorporate Investments
4种公司间投资
1. Minority passive, 小于20%, 无显著影响。又可归类3种：

• held-for-maturity
  • 记balance sheet 用amortized cost. 像买了个bond；interest income记在income statement, fair value变动不管。
• held-for-trading
  • 一般小于三个月，记balance sheet 用fair value; realized 和unrealized的g/s, dividends和interest都记income statement
• available-for-sale
  • 记balance sheet 用fair value, unrealized g/s 不记income statement,记在equity. realized g/s, dividends和interest都记income statement
  • GAAP下，卖掉以后的unrealized g/s 记在other comprehensive income; realized g/s 要从other comprehensive income 中reverse ，然后记在income statement.
  • IFRS下，类似，但fx导致的unrealized g/s放在income statement。GAAP是所有的unrealized放在equity。

2. Minority active, 20%~50%，有显著影响，小于20%也有可能。

• 用Equity method，记cost, 在balance sheet 里面是noncurrent asset.

• investee的earning/loss按比例增加/减少equity,并记在income statement，发dividends按比例减少equity,不记income statement. equity减少到0，就不用equity method.

• 2007.11.15以后，记fair value, 变动记在income statement.
• 超过book value的话，用fair value记，cost – fair value部分记goodwill
• 每年要test impairement： carrying value > fair value ，IFRS可以write-up，GAAP不行
• 关联交易暂不记账，出去了才记。

3. Controlling, 大于50%，控股，小于50%也有可能。

• 用consolidation，记minority interest account=equty 2 × %，或noncontrolling interest (IFRS)

• current asset = ca 1 + ca 2 – cost（收购价）；其他部分简单相加；equity 不变。

• Income statement 里面，revenue, expense相加，减去minority interest=net income 2 × %

4. JV, shared control

IFRS 可用proportionate consolidation（优先）, 也可以用equity method。

• GAAP只能用equity method
• 不记minority interest
• current asset = ca 1 + ca 2×% – cost（收购价）其他部分也按比例加；equity 不变

Purchased Method：

• 用market value，paid in capital 要加上investee的asset – liability（市场价）；
• investee报表里面的goodwill被忽略，来计算investor的goodwill.
• impairment loss记在income statement，continuing operations
• bargain purchase ，GAAP下，要reassess,超过cost的部分从noncurrent asset减掉，还有多的放到income statement, extraordinary gain.IFRS下，超出部分都记income statement, continuing operation, 不计extraordinary。

• GAAP和IFRS对比：
  • GAAP下，小于100%的收购，按fair value，剩下的按book value（blended value 加权平均）；IFRS下，都按fair value
  • GAAP下，在途R&D算identifiable asset, 一旦goodwill算完，R&D在income statement算expense掉；IFRS做amortize处理
  • GAAP下，contingency resolved 和determined 才记；IFRS要估计，包括在purchase price里面。

Pooling Method（已停用）：用book value

SPE(VIE in IFRS)：一般都off-balance sheet
QSPE：GAAP可用，IFRS不可用。

P136 Equity method, proportionate consolidatation, consolidation method对比：ROE都一样，net income都一样，equity都一样。

Credit Risk 3种：Default Risk, Credit Spread Risk和Downgrade Risk

Rating 的3个 Source: Credit Rating反映default的可能性，Rating Watch观察期，Rating Outlook长期预测

Moody建议：
1. 有downgrade watch, rating降2个notches
2. 有negative outlook, rating降1个notch
3. 有stable outlook 保持rating 
4. 有positive outlook, rating升1个notch
5. 有upgrade watch, rating升2个notch 

Credit Analysis的4c：
1.character, corporate governance管理层和董事会的关系，董事会越独立越好。
2.covenants, affirmative covenants要求公司要做什么，negative covenants要求公司不能做什么。
3.collateral,
4.capacity, Moody用4个factor衡量：industry trends, regulatory environment, operating and competitive position, financial position and source of liquidity,company structure, parent company support agreements, and special event risk. 

Ratios:  ROE, current ratio, acid-test ratio,
long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio,   total debt-to-capitalization ratio
EBIT coverage ratio, EBITDA coverage ratio

Cash Flow Analysis:
Net Income + depreciation +/- other noncash items
=Funds from operations
+decrease in noncash current assets – increase in nondebt current liabilities
=Operating cash flow
- capital expenditures
=Free operating cash flow
-Cash dividends
=Discretionary cash flow
-acquisitions + asset disposals + other sources(uses) 
=Prefinancing cash flow

S&P 用的cash flow framework 
Funds from operations / total debt
Funds from operations / capital spending requirements
(Free operating cash flow + interest) / interest  
Debt service coverage = (Free operating cash flow + interest) / (interest + annual principal repayment )
Debt payback period = total debt / discretionary cash flow

High-Yield Corporate Bonds 研究 Debt Structure 和Corporate Structure

Asset-Backed Securities（ABS）最重要的是collateral quality, 另一个重要的是concentration of loans in the collateral pool. 比较复杂的是seller/servicer的quality也需要评估，没有biz和operating risk

Municipal Bond里面的tax-backed debt研究issuer’s debt structure, budgetary policy, local tax and intergovernmental revenue availability, issuer’s sociaeconomic environment.
MB里面的Revenue bonds研究 limits of the basic security, flow of funds structure, rate or user charge, covenants, priority-of-revenue claims, additional-bonds test

Sovereign bond在S&P研究
economic risk : economic and income structure, prospects for economic growth, degree of fiscal flexibility, public debt burden, monetary policy and price stability, balance of payment flexibility, external debt and liquidity
political risk:  政体，政权稳定，经济政策的支持程度，全球化的经济和金融体系，内外部证券风险

National Gov有2个rate，
local currency debt rating
foreign currency debt rating, 通常higher default rate和lower credit rating

Corporate Bond研究capacity to pay和corporate governance structure, 研究biz和operating risk

to be continue…

Rule of 70, approximate years to double = 70/growth rate

Factors of production：
Land, Capital Goods,  Labor, Entrepreneurial ability

Preconditions of economic growth:
Markets, Property rights, Monetory exchange 

Labor productivity growth / Real GDP per labor hour有2个因素决定，

1.growth in physical capital per labor hour, 导致move along productivity curve，technology level一定的情况下，有One-Third Rule，1%改变1/3%的real GDP per labor hour，剩下的是technological change导致的改变。
2.technological change  ，导致productivity curve to shift 

有law of diminishing returns

Key method to increase eco growth:
encouraging savings
encouraging R&D to develop tech advances that are public goods
stimulate international trade to realize gains from specification
improve the quality of education by investing in human capital 

Key factors driving eco growth:
Saving and investment in new capital
Investment in human capital 
Discovery new tech

3个Growth Theories

1.Classical growth theory,说real GDP是temporary (real GDP/person up above subsisitence level)-> population explodes -> Real GDP/person down to subsistence level.

2.Neoclassical growth theory, 说no tech change -> no real GDP growth, Tech Change -> increased saving and investment -> capital per labor hour grow and real return fall.
when real return = target return, economic growth stops.
Tech drives eco growth, but not influenced by eco growth.
population growth independent  of economic growth.(difference between 1&2) 

3.New growth theory,说Eco growth continues indefinitely as tech advances. Real rate down -> incentive to discover new products and methods -> real return grow and > target return.
Eco growth does influence tech development(difference between 2&3) 
low profits is incentive to innovate(key difference btw 2&3)
knowledge capital 不管low of diminishing returns.
也叫perpetual motion economy,  endogenous growth model

Economic Regulation: 包括控制natural monopolies 和competitive industries, 为了控制price，有2种，Cost-of-service & Rate-of-return， 控制excessive monopoly profit 和 predatory competitive practices

Social Regulation: 包括控制across all industries

nagative effects: creative response (feedback effect)

Regulator Behavior:
Capture Hypothesis, 说regulator会收industry影响。
Share-the-gains, Share-the-pains theory, 说 regulator会考虑三方的利益，legislators，custormers，regulated firm

Barriers to trade:
Tariff, benefit domestic producers, worker in protected industries and gov. at the expense of domestic consumers and workers outside the protected industry.
Quotas, benefit domestic producers, worker in protected industries, and those with import licenses , at the expense of domestic consumers and worker outside the protected industry.
Voluntary export restrains(VERs), benefit domestic producers, workers in protected industries, and those with export licenses or the power to grant them, at the expense of domestic consumers and workers outside the protected industry.
supports:
1. protect developing industries
2.anti-dumping
3.national defense

little supports:
1. protect jobs.
2.create jobs.
3.depress high wage

Real FX = Nomi Fx × Price in Foreign / Price in Domestic

Currency Demand:
1.demand for export from the country(or area) 
2.interest rate of the currency
3.expected future exchange rate

Currency Supply:
1.demand for import
2.interest rate  of other currencies
3.expected future exchange rate

Same factors impact on supply&demand, so exchange rate may be quite volatile(more so if supply&demand independent.)  

Balance of payment equation(BOP)

current account + capital account + official settlement account = 0
current account: net exchange of goods and services, investment income, unilateral transfers(gifts to or from other nations)
capital account(financial): flow of funds, to make up the difference for current account.
official settlement account: changes in official reserves(foreign currency, gold, IMF special drawing rights(SDRs), other foreign assets)

Flexible ex rate,决定于supply&demand without direct intervention by central bank

Fixed rate, peg the value of a currency, set by gov, need active gov intervention,需要一定的level的 reserves

Crawling Peg ex rate, set a target range for a limited period of time, reduce the risk to run out of reserves

Direct Quotes: DC/FC(base currency/counter currency),  Indirect, FC/DC
AUD:USD=0.6 –> USD/AUD= 0.6 –> 0.6-USD/AUD用于计算cross rate 
 

fx market: spot market , forward market, currency swap market 

bid-ask spread = (ask-bid)/bid , depend on market conditions, bank and currency dealer positions,  trading volume

Triangular Arbitrage

base currency forward discount=forward rate – spot rate = negative number
base currency forward premium=forward rate – spot rate = positive number 

Annualized forward premium/discount =（Fr-Sr）/Sr×（360/number of forward contract days）

Interest rate parity, coverd interest arbitrage
forward=spot × （1+rf(n/360)） /(1+rd(n/360))

Unanticipated shift to expansionary monetary policy -> economic growth, accelerated inflation rate, lower real interest rate

Unanticipated shift to expansive fiscal policy -> budget deficits, increase in aggregate demand, accelerated inflation rate, increase in domestic real interest rates

Purchasing power parity(PPP)
relative PPP: E(St)=S0 × [（1+ If）/（1+Id）]^t

International Fisher Relation: interest rate diff. should be equal to expected inflation diff. real interest rates are stable.
exact methodology: (1+r ) =(1+real r)(1+E(I))
linear approximation: r≈real r + E(I) / real r≈ r- E(I)

Uncovered interest rate parity combined PPP 和Fish relation
forward=spot × （1+rf(n/360)） /(1+rd(n/360)) = E[Sn] 
(F-S0)/S0 =E(%ΔS)

GDP+net property income from abroad=GNI-depreciation=NNI

GDP常用，但有问题，1. survey得来的数据耗时且不准，2.低估了灰色和地下经济

GDP三部分：perfect world，output=expenditure=income
output：net value added=total production – total cost  (most reliable)
expenditure：Total final expenditure(TFE)=all consumption+investment+export goods and services
income：all earnings ,trading profits ,rental income (least reliable)

Expenditure 是market price（含tax和subsidy），Output和Income是factor price
GDP at market price – indirect taxes + subsidies = GDP at factor price 

Output是current 和 constant prices
Expenditure是current price， adjusted to constant price，算price index，叫GDP deflator （volatile eco时不准）
Income用current price，用price index转换成constant price