收藏家 J‘s Collection

Credit Risk 3种：Default Risk, Credit Spread Risk和Downgrade Risk

Rating 的3个 Source: Credit Rating反映default的可能性，Rating Watch观察期，Rating Outlook长期预测

Moody建议：
1. 有downgrade watch, rating降2个notches
2. 有negative outlook, rating降1个notch
3. 有stable outlook 保持rating 
4. 有positive outlook, rating升1个notch
5. 有upgrade watch, rating升2个notch 

Credit Analysis的4c：
1.character, corporate governance管理层和董事会的关系，董事会越独立越好。
2.covenants, affirmative covenants要求公司要做什么，negative covenants要求公司不能做什么。
3.collateral,
4.capacity, Moody用4个factor衡量：industry trends, regulatory environment, operating and competitive position, financial position and source of liquidity,company structure, parent company support agreements, and special event risk. 

Ratios:  ROE, current ratio, acid-test ratio,
long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio,   total debt-to-capitalization ratio
EBIT coverage ratio, EBITDA coverage ratio

Cash Flow Analysis:
Net Income + depreciation +/- other noncash items
=Funds from operations
+decrease in noncash current assets – increase in nondebt current liabilities
=Operating cash flow
- capital expenditures
=Free operating cash flow
-Cash dividends
=Discretionary cash flow
-acquisitions + asset disposals + other sources(uses) 
=Prefinancing cash flow

S&P 用的cash flow framework 
Funds from operations / total debt
Funds from operations / capital spending requirements
(Free operating cash flow + interest) / interest  
Debt service coverage = (Free operating cash flow + interest) / (interest + annual principal repayment )
Debt payback period = total debt / discretionary cash flow

High-Yield Corporate Bonds 研究 Debt Structure 和Corporate Structure

Asset-Backed Securities（ABS）最重要的是collateral quality, 另一个重要的是concentration of loans in the collateral pool. 比较复杂的是seller/servicer的quality也需要评估，没有biz和operating risk

Municipal Bond里面的tax-backed debt研究issuer’s debt structure, budgetary policy, local tax and intergovernmental revenue availability, issuer’s sociaeconomic environment.
MB里面的Revenue bonds研究 limits of the basic security, flow of funds structure, rate or user charge, covenants, priority-of-revenue claims, additional-bonds test

Sovereign bond在S&P研究
economic risk : economic and income structure, prospects for economic growth, degree of fiscal flexibility, public debt burden, monetary policy and price stability, balance of payment flexibility, external debt and liquidity
political risk:  政体，政权稳定，经济政策的支持程度，全球化的经济和金融体系，内外部证券风险

National Gov有2个rate，
local currency debt rating
foreign currency debt rating, 通常higher default rate和lower credit rating

Corporate Bond研究capacity to pay和corporate governance structure, 研究biz和operating risk

to be continue…