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Secret Sauce笔记 Financial Statement Analysis

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FS被investor和creditor有用,还有gov regulator,tax authority和其他,提供short-term liquidity, long-term earning power, growth opportunity和asset position of the firm. 还应该是relevent,timely,reliable,material和consistent允许time-series和cross-sectional 比较。

The Financial Account Standards Board(FASB)是美国的,建立了Generally Accepted Accounting Principle(GAAP)
The International Organization of  Securiies Commission(IOSC)建立跨过的disclosure标准
The International Accounting Standards Board(IASB)目标是提供international uniformity, 虽然没有执行力,但很多国家还是采用IASB GAAP

除了Balance sheet,income statement和statement of cash flow,分析师还应该看financial statement footnotes,statement of comprehensive income,statement of stockholders’ equity,proxy statement,supplementary schedules和management dicision and analysis(MD&A).

独立auditor有doubts,就说qualified opinion; auditor能提供 reasonable assurance证明报表没有material misstatement,就说unqualified

revenue和expense在earn和incur时候就实现了,不管cash flow是什么时候。matching principle要求expense在revenue实现的同时记录。

实现revenue的条件,completion of the earning process和assuance of payment
实现revenue的方法,sale basis method,percentage-of-completion method,completed contract method, installment sales method,cost recovery method

unusual or infrequent items: 是pre-tax 在net income from continuing operations之前。线上
gains of losses from 关掉business segment
gains of losses from 下属公司卖assets or investments
provisions for environmental remediation
impairments, write-offs, write-downs 和restructuring costs
integration expense 跟收购有关

Extrodinary items: 是net of taxes 在net income from continuing operation 之后。线下
losses from expropriation of assets
uninsured losses from natural disasters

discontinued operation:是管理层决定dispose of但还没做或当年没做,在operation已经有income或者loss之后。必须在实质上与公司别的活动不一样。是net of tax,在线下

accounting change,累积效应,是after tax basis在线下,通常不需要restate 历史,除非:
1. 库存会计方法改变
2.改变(to/from)full-cost method, 比如油气开采
3.改变(to/from)percentage-of-completion method
4.IPO前的任何改变

操纵earnings和managerial discretion,4种操纵方法:
1.classification of good/bad news, 好消息放在线上,坏消息放在线下
2.income smoothing,好年份做小,坏年份做大
3.big bath behavior,所有坏消息统一公布
4.accounting change,用来smooth earnings

CFO,CFI,CFF里面容易混的几个,interest payment,receipts和dividends,USGAAP下,公司给股东的dividends是CFF,其他的dividends和interest expense都是CFO,在IAS GAAP下,花掉的dividends和interests可以是CFO也可以是CFF,收入的dividends和interests可以是CFO也可以是CFI

direct和indirect method 算CFO

indirect,bottom up,从下至上,net income开始,net income – gains +losses from financing和investing +non-cash charges+-asset和liability因为operation的改变
direct,top down,从上到下,sales开始,sales- cogs- cash operating expense – interest expense -taxes

cash flow的分类,不是影响income statement就是影响balance sheet;asset减小,liability和equity增加是正现金流。asset增加和liability和equity减小,是负现金流。

CFI,买property,plant和equipment,investments,acquisition和卖asset和business产生的cash
CFF,capital structure 改变的交易。dividends paid,short-term borrowing的改变,long-term borrowing 和payment of long-term borrowing,stock sales and repurchases

Free cash flow FCF=CFO-net capital expenditure

5个影响跨国报表的因素
legal system,tax laws,sources of financing ,inflation rates,political and economic ties

公式:
current ratio=current assets/current liability
quick ratio=(cash + marketable securies+receivables)/current liabilities
cash ratio=

cash conversion cycle=avg.receivable colletion period+avg.inventory processing period-payable payment period
receivable turnover=net annual sales/avg.receivables; avg.receivables collection period=365/receivable turnover
payable turnover=COGS / avg.trade payables;payable payment period=365/payables turnover ratio
inventory turnover=COGS/avg.inventory; avg inventory processing period=365/inventory turnover

Total asset turnover=net sales / avg total net assets
fixed asset turnover=net sales / avg net fixed assets
equity turnover =net sales / avg equity

在common-size income statement能找到
gross profit margin=gross profit / net sales
net profit margin=net income /net sales
operating profit margin=operating profit /net sales=EBIT/net sales

ROTC return on total capital=(net income+interest expense)/average total capital
return on total equity=net income / avg. total equity
return on common equity=(net income – preferred dividends)/avg. common equity

ROE
three components,traditional approach
=net income/sales × sales/assets× assets/equity=net profit margin×asset turnover×equity multiplier
假如ROE低,可能是poor profit margin或者poor asset turnover,或者under-leverage
five components,extended system
=(EBIT/sales×sales/assets-interest expense/assets)×asset/equity×(1-t)
=(operating profit margin×total asset turnover -interest expense rate)×financial leverage multiplier×tax retention rate
industry averages,economy-wide firm averages和公司自己的历史performance

D/E ratio=total long-term debt/total equity
total debt ratio=(current liability+total long-term liability)/(total debt +total equity)
interest coverage=EBIT/interest expense
cash flow to long-term debt = CFO/(book value of long term debt+PV of operating leases)
fixed financial coverage ratio(要把lease interest expense加到分子分母)

ratio的局限:独立看没用,不同的accounting 方法导致横向对比困难,跨行业的公司对比困难

retention rate=1-dividends declared/operating income after taxes
g=retention rate X ROE

common-size balance sheet是所有的BS项目以percentage of total assets表示
common-size income statement是所有IS的项目以percentage of sales表示

dilutive securities:stock option,warrants,convertable debt 和 preferred stock,行权时会减小EPS
antidilutive:行权时会增加EPS

simple capital structure,没有dilutive securities的结构,只有common stock, nonconvertible debt和non convertible preferred stock
complex capital structure,有dilutive的结构,要求report bisic EPS和diluted EPS

bisic EPS=(net income – preferred dividends)/weighted average number of common shares outstanding
diluted EPS
每个dilutive securities要分别判断是不是会dilute
convertible preferred dividends/shares from conversion of preferred stocks或者
convertible debt interest(1-t)/shares from conversion os debt 假如值小于basic EPS, 那么就是dilutive,因为转换后收益高
diluted EPS=调整后给common stocks的income/(weighted avg common stock+转换的股份)
调整后的income=earning for common shares+可转换优先股的dividends +可转债的after tax interest

Treasury stock method,只要行权价低于均价,就会增加shares
new shares =(avg market price – exercise price)/avg market price X shares covered by options/warrants

inventory valuation method
FIFO,早买的早进COGS
LIFO,晚买的早进COGS
weighted average costing

涨价时,LIFO的inventory会低估,用LIFO reserve来调整LIFO到FIFO,代表没实现的profit 和没paid的tax。调整BS要把LIFO reserve加到inventory,把t X LIFO reserve加到deferred taxes,把(1-t)×LIFO reserve加到retained earnings

COGSF=COGSL-(ending LIFO reserve-beginning LIFO reserve)

Profitability ratio 用LIFO衡量,asset和equity用FIFO衡量;COGS用LIFO更好,FIFO要调整成LIFO
Liquidity ratio 用FIFO更好,inventory用FIFO更好, LIFO要调整成FIFO
Activity ratio,inventory turnover最好是用LIFO的COGS和FIFO的avg inventory
Sovency ratio,调整BS和Shareholders’ equity要用FIFO,LIFO要调整。

长期资产,实物资产可以depreciation,natural resources可以depletion,intangible asset可以amortize

折旧:
直线折旧=(原值-残值)/折旧年限
SYD折旧(x)= (原值-残值)(n-x+1)/(1+….n)
双重折旧(x)=2/折旧年限 X book value at beginning of year x (不管残值)

impairments, carrying value大于未来现金流(不折现)就必须impairment
impairment的loss = carrying value-fair value,假如fair value不能算,用未来现金流折现于incremental borrowing rate

SFAS 143要求asset retirement obligation(AROs),要求AROs的现值,加到fixed assets和liabilities中,liability像zero coupon一样增加,asset就折旧,interest expense会增加,liabilities to equity 会增加

tax return的术语
Taxable income
Taxes payable
Income tax paid
Tax loss carryforward

FS上,
pretax income
income tax expense
deferred income tax expense

DTL , BS上income tax expense比taxes payable多的部分
最常见的是,income statement上的折旧比tax return的折旧少。
DTA,BS上taxes payable 比income tax expense多的部分
比如warranty expense,income statement上warranty expense可以deductible,tax return上只有发生了的warranty expense才可以deductible

DTL和DTA计算,taxable income 和pretax income所有临时的差别 X 未来的tax rate,not netted,同时反映在BS上,税率的改变同时影响,net change反映在当期income tax expense
如果asset不断增加,导致DTL不会reverse,分析师会把liability变成equity;如果有可能reverse,要用现值来调整。

免税债券的interest不增加DTL或DTA,要调整到taxes payable=income tax expense

par value 发行的bonds
BS上,bond全程记做face value
interest expense=book value X market rate=par value X coupon rate
cash flow,interest payment=coupon payment,CFF=发行价,总结时CFF=redeem价=发行价

溢价或折价发行
BS上,总是premium逐年amortized直到最后0, discount同样;最后回复par value
interest expense=coupon payment – premium amortization; coupon payment + discount amortization
cash flow, primuim CFO 低估,CFF高估

capital lease 分类
1.租期结束title transfer
2.a bargin purchase option exists
3.租期>=75%的设备寿命
4.payment的现值>=90%的fair value of the asset, 折现率是lower the lessee’s incremental borrowing rate or implicit interest rate on the lease, implicit rate是lease payment的现值=fair value

operating lease:Lessee,开始时没有entry,rent expense = lease payment 对income和CFO影响。footnotes公布未来5年的lease payment需求
capital lease:开始时asset和liability增加最小lease payment的现值,折现率是lower the lessee’s incremental borrowing rate or implicit interest rate on the lease, implicit rate是lease payment的现值=fair value
分成两部分,CFO减少interest expense=discount rate X leaseliability at the beginning of the period,CFF减少principal payment= lease payment-interest payment


Off balance sheet financing methods
take-or-pay contracts and throughput arrangements: 承诺买一定量在一定时间,价格固定,买方要在footnotes里面披露。分析师要把这个信息加入FS

sale of receivables with recouse
把receivable卖掉的公司,要把收来的receivable给new owner,记为sales减少receivable增加CFO,买家风险小,卖家承担receivable的风险,就像一个抵押贷款
分析师要加回account receivable和current liabilities,卖掉的CFO要改成CFF

Lessor对于lease的处理
operating lease,lease payment是revenue,asset要折旧。
capital lease,
1.如果sales lease,lessor是制造商或者dealer,开始时就算profit;增加net income,retained earnings和assets
2.如果是financing lease,只有利息收入算作每期的income

租期当中,operating lease的net income 会higher,所以两种方式的asset equity和retained earning是一样的。

J 发布

四月 14th, 2008 at 10:08 下午

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